Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Should Bush debate Iran?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060829/pl_nm/nuclear_iran_dc_92

"TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday challenged        President Bush to a televised debate and voiced defiance as a deadline neared for        Iran to halt work the West fears is a step toward building nuclear bombs. "

My guess: Ahmadinejad will offer to put Iran's nuclear capacity in a lockbox.

He can get a deal on cheap lockboxes from Al Gore.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

The Onion fact-checks?

I was interviewed by a free-lance writer earlier this year, who didn't get proper contact information from me. I'm quoting from his request:

" The editors I'm working with need contact information for
people I'm quoting, just for fact-checking purposes. Can I get phone
numbers from : Joe ____, Dave ___, Mike Kruger. I moved all the way up here and then realized I didn't have their info. My fault entirely. ... I've got a good shot
at getting this ... story published in a local magazine this
fall. .... I've recently moved to Madison to take a job with the Onion."

Is he hinting I'm about to be in The Onion? Surely he can't. That would mean The Onion does fact-checking! I thought that was the type of thing only the Boston Globe and the New York Times and such did  -- or maybe now it is only The Onion that fact-checks?

Of course, I didn't see anyone else with this story:  http://www.theonion.com/content/node/51848

 

UPDATE: Scott informs me that, while he works for The Onion, the story is being written for a Chicago-area magazine.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Today's depressing statistic: beating only Turkey.

"A survey of 32 European countries, the US and Japan has revealed that only Turkey is less willing than the US to accept evolution as fact."

(Jeff Hecht article in New Scientist based on surveys by Jon Miller of Michigan State University)

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19125653.700?DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=mg19125653.700

"Even though the average American has more years of education than when Miller began his surveys 20 years ago, the percentage of people in the country who accept the idea of evolution has declined from 45 in 1985 to 40 in 2005 (Science, vol 313, p 765). That's despite a series of widely publicised advances in genetics, including genetic sequencing, which shows strong overlap of the human genome with those of chimpanzees and mice."

Saturday, August 12, 2006

More proof there's no response to gas prices

I'd earlier noted that while the majority of people SAID they were cutting down on gasoline usage, gasoline usage was actually up slightly. [ http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/entries/2006/08/09/watch-what-we-do-not-what-we-say/783 ]

Here's more proof Americans are still only talking, not acting from this Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial:

"The Environmental Protection Agency reports that 2006 model vehicles sold in the U.S. average a tepid 21 miles per gallon, the same as in 2005. ...

For all the fuss about increased energy costs and Middle East turmoil, the 2006 fleet average for all makers is 5 percent below the peak of 22.1 mpg all the way back in 1987-88. Despite a worsening energy picture, fuel economy seems to be locked in reverse."

Floyd Landis -- my theory

I bicycle a lot, but don't race. Oh, I've gotten a day license for a cyclo-cross race or two, but I'm much too slow to dream. With 30% below normal lung capacity due to sarcoidosis there's not much hope of competing with my age group. 

Nevertheless, I follow racing a bit, and acquaintances ask me what I think happened with Floyd Landis. Here's my theory.

Only a tiny bit separates first from not-first at the top level of competition, and that difference is worth a lot of money. Plus, there are a lot of races, and so there's a lot of need to recover as fast as possible.  Under these conditions, there are huge temptations to cheat.  It's also hard and expensive to test. The testing protocols are statistical, and even the first level test for the A samples cost $300 each, so the testing is hardly continuous. At low levels of drug, the type that fly below the testing radar, you probably aren't doing much damage to your body (relative to what you are already doing by a career as a professional athlete).

So, temptation$ plus low likelihood of being caught plus little physical risk... that adds up to a high likelihood that there is a lot of cheating. There's evidence posted on this site http://www.cycling4all.com/index.php?content=d_news12.php that cycling and baseball have the highest rates of positive drug results.

Without any evidence whatever, I would guess that Landis was taking a complicated pattern of doping with testosterone (perhaps to improve recovery) and then adding epitestosterone as a masking agent to hide this (since the screener, $300 test, measures whether the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone is above 4:1).  In Landis's disappointment at finishing stage 16 so poorly, and perhaps because he had too much alcohol to drown his sorrows, he did not follow this regime to the letter.

The next day, he may have realized this might have been the case, which is why he drank so much water during the stage (a count of 70 water bottles either drunk or poured over his body was noted).  This may have been an attempt to flush. In addition, a rider from the T-Mobile team drafted him during his entire ride, up until the final climb. The T-Mobile rider wasn't helping Floyd because his teammate Kloden was one of Floyd's rivals. The T-Mobile rider was trying to hang on to Floyd in hopes of having morestrength at the end and winning the stage in the final sprint.  If so, Floyd would have had only a 1 in 70 chance of being tested (they test the winner, the leader, and two other random individuals) and would probably have gotten away with it.  But the T-Mobile rider couldn't hang on and Floyd was tested.

So, my guess is Floyd was moderately doping, but messed up and got caught.

Who advertises to those with empty Inboxes?

 

I just cleared out all the messages from an e-mail account I seldom use. It's mostly used to provide an e-mail address when I'd really just as soon not provide one, and mostly accumulates spam. After clearing it out, I re-checked the in-box to be sure it was empty. It was, but the empty spot contained 3 ads -- all for lonelyhearts services.

Asian women look for men - Women from Philippines, Thailand, and other asian countries
 
Single in Chicago? - Meet quality Singles in Chicago Parties, Trips and Introductions.

eHarmony® Online Dating - Looking for a Serious Relationship? Let eHarmony Help. Free Profile!

This makes sense, now that I think about it.

Wednesday, August 9, 2006

Watch what we do, not what we say

Today's fun pair of facts, from the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/09/us/09gas.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

"In the Pew Research survey of 1,182 Americans — 1,048 of them drivers — 55 percent said they were driving less because of the recent increases in gasoline prices. The poll, taken from June 20 to July 16, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Yet Americans’ overall gasoline appetite has barely budged. Total use this year is up about one-half percent to 1 percent compared with 2005, according to federal figures — a slower rate of growth than in the past, but hardly the mark of a nation with its foot fully on the brake."