Wednesday, November 17, 2004

Something's getting stranger

One of those exchanges that needs no further explanation, from the newsgroup rec.bicycles.misc:

> Bill wrote:

> I keep spare money, $100 bills, rolled up and about 5 each in a piece of
> 1/2" pipe threaded with caps on both ends. Each of these is a $500 stash.
> I don't even remember where I tossed some of them, but I do take a few
> tossed in my car on trips, just in case. If a cop ever pulled me over and
> demanded to see my trunk would they blow up my car?
> This country is getting stranger by the day. I wonder if we will have a
> new, Republican written Constitution by the time Bush get done with it.

Bob responded:
Just so I understand... you say you keep your spare money in what sounds like
phony pipe bombs and you think the country is "getting stranger"? Oooookay.

Sunday, November 14, 2004

What states are more generous?

Stephen Harding wrote:
>
> The annual report on charitable giving just came out, and
> once again, the richest states (CT, MA and New England) scored
> at the bottom, while poorest states (MS, AL) where at the top.
>
The overall data is generously provided at
http://www.catalogueforphilanthropy.org/cfp/db/generosity.php?year=2004&orderby=giving_rank

Being a statistician means I have a strange idea of fun, so I took a look at the data.
The way they analyzed it isn't wrong, but it's also possible to reach an entirely different conclusion.

Poor states like Mississippi did NOT come out on top in their ranking because they gave a lot. They don't; they rank 29th among all states in charitable deductions per return at $929, below the US average of $1072.

They come out on top for two reasons. First, relatively few people in Mississippi itemize deductions (21% versus a US average of 31%) and the catalogue divided by the number of returns that itemized, not all returns.

The average return in Connecticut had almost $400 MORE charitable deductions than the average return in Mississippi ($1309 versus $929, ranking 5th).  But more people in CT itemize (40% versus 21%).

So, why do the people in CT itemize more than the people in MS? The answer is simple. You itemize when itemizing makes more sense than taking the standard deduction. MS has lower taxes to deduct, so fewer people will find it to their advantage to itemize. If few people itemize, those that do itemize will tend to be the biggest givers. CT has higher taxes to deduct, so more people will itemize rather than take the standard deduction. If many people itemize, then the donation average per return will be skewed by the fact that those itemize will not just be big givers, but medium givers as well.

The catalogue people also adjusted for adjusted gross income -- NOT adusted gross income for returns which itemized, but total adjusted gross income. This isn't unreasonable, but does create a sort of apple-and-orange comparison.

So, to provide a contrast, I looked at the average charitable deduction per return, which is NOT what the catalogue for philanthropy report, although it can be calculated from their numbers.

I would contend that either way of analyzing the data is useful. The Catalog for Philanthropy's method serves to remind us that states with lower incomes can contain just as much generosity. My method is more useful for figuring out where people are willing to give more cash. But my method is still flawed by the difference in itemizing by state.

Overall, states that look good their way look bad my way, producing a small negative correlation.

By this standard, the most generous states are Utah, Maryland, and New York. The least generous state is West Virginia, followed by the two Dakotas.

The notable exceptions where the ratings agree are Utah, which looks generous either way (#8 on theirs, #1 on mine) and New Hampshire (#50 on theirs, #43 on mine). I would suspect Mormon encouragement of tithing has something to do
with the Utah results.

More typical are states like Louisiana (#4 for them, #42 for me) and New Jersey (#47 for them, #6 for me).

If you e-mail me I will provide the spreadsheet with my added columns of calculations; you won't find the numbers above directly on the spreadsheet the web
link provides.

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Stinkin' Lucky

I was riding home from the train station last night in the dark after a hard day. I was feeling tired and lethargic and just wanted to get home.

Suddenly a large skunk sashayed out of the bushes right in front of my bike. I had instant visions of hitting the skunk with my front wheel, going over the handlebars and breaking an arm, collarbone, or other valuable body part -- AND getting sprayed by the skunk for my trouble. I braked.

The skunk, meanwhile, was similarly panicked. The skunk pivoted, claws scratching and grabbing the concrete. He pulled out of the way, I swerved a bit, and rolled by. I may have run over the tip of his tail, but basically missed him. I guess he didn't have time to spray.