Today's questionable stat: Organics

The Tribune today reports http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0606260140jun26,1,7538640.story?ctrack=1&cset=true reports that antibiotic foods are not necessarily safer.

"The study was funded by the Institute for Food Technologists Foundation, a non-profit scientific and educational group with 22,000 members working for the food industry, academia and government. The panel was composed of microbiologists and food scientists from leading universities. Besides the University of Georgia, panelists were drawn from Rutgers University, Iowa State University, the University of Tennessee, University of Minnesota and the University of Maryland. Many Food and Drug Administration food laboratories are located at Iowa State." [Note double plug for Iowa State, possibly the writer's alma mater?]

"Doyle dismissed possible concerns about the food scientist members of the panel being too closely linked to the food industry, noting that about one-third of the panel was made up of microbiologists."

So, two-thirds are not microbiologists. Some of those microbiologists also work in industry. Most of those who are not microbiologists seem likely, given the composition of the group, to work in industry as well, or to be academics with strong ties to the food industry. These guys couldn't have pressure put on them by their employer, could they?

About the most that can be said for this study is that it's a counterweight to earlier studies for the Organic Trade Association, another highly unbiased group.

Kal-Haven Trail Bearable

“Chuck” posted this on a bicycling forum about the Kal-Haven trail, which runs from South Haven to Kalamazoo, Michigan:

“I'm about 10 miles from home at about 1:00 a.m., just cruising with the light on....and this black bear steps onto the trail only about 20 yards in front of me. It didn't pay any attention to me. It just kept at the same pace, crossing the trail, getting out of my light. I never felt threatened, but I wasn't hanging out there either. It makes me wonder if I need something more than a knife for these night rides.” 

Chuck didn’t indicate which bar he was biking home from.

Stubborn Father's Day

I thought a ride with my daughter would be a great Father's Day gift for
me, so I suggested it to her the day before.

"Where do you want to go?" she asked, and I said we might head up to
Lake Forest and I could show her where the Skokie Valley Trail hooked up
off Lake Cook Road. "Sounds great," she indicated.

The next morning, she wasn't up at 7. Or 8. Or ... well, let's just say
she rolled out of bed at 12:30 and announced that it was so hot last
night that she hadn't slept at all and we'd have to bag the ride.

"If we'd left at a reasonable hour, we'd be back by now," I complained.
"If you didn't want to go on the ride, you should have said that
yesterday!"

"Oh, all right. I'll GO on the ride. Let me get my stuff on," she
yelled. I regretted pushing it this far. There's nothing like a ride
with a sullen riding partner to make riding solo look good.

But, a few minutes later, we left.

Two blocks from home I was going to ride up on the sidewalk to push the
pedestrian button, but I took the low, wet curb at too acute an angle
and went sprawling. My knee hurt. There was a bleeding cut on my left
shin that looked exactly like the imprint of a pedal. My daughter said,
"Now I know why you told me I should get bicycling gloves."  I resolved
to ride through the pain.

At 4.3 miles in, I hear labored breathing from behind me and a strangled
"Dad!"  My daughter was having a panic attack. After that subsided, I
asked her if she wanted me to call Mom to pick us up, wanted to turn
back, or wanted to continue. "Let's keep going," she said. She's
stubborn -- must get that from her mother.

It started to rain. We ignored it.

After we left the garden and headed up the Skokie Valley Trail, it was
pretty clear we were out there alone so we rode side by side. My riding
partner is young enough to be my daughter and isn't carrying an extra 30
pounds around her middle, so she pressed the pace enough for me to be
slightly winded while she breathed easily.

We started to mellow. We had a nice snack at Einstein's in Lake Forest
and had a mellow ride home. Total miles: 43

It was a great Father's Day. I attempted to draw some sort of moral
about this in the evening, about how we might have arguments about
various aspects of her late adolescence but that if we just kept going
through them we'd come through this OK. She'd already forgotten about the
argument, the crash, the panic attack and the rain and
remembered only how nice a ride it had been. It was a great Father's
Day.

 

Headlines heating up, too

Competing Reuters and AP headlines today:

Last 25 years warmest on Earth since 1600 - 

Earth hottest it's been in 2,000 years 

How many marketing scientists does it take to forecast a crew shirt?

I just returned from the INFORMS Marketing Science Conference. This was 3 days of listening to mathematical models of demand, supply, forecasting, logistics, optimal product assortment, and similar topics. Registrants received a souvenir crew-neck shirt.

With 700+ "marketing scientists" at a conference, you wouldn't think that the conference would misforecast the number of souvenir shirts of various sizes required so badly. There were plenty of XL's, but no S or M's at all. Evidently, they thought this group of academics would be wearing the shirts around their egos, not their torsos.

This entry is a bit unfair. The hosts at the University of Pittsburgh did a fine job organizing the conference, and this was the only glitch I saw.