Zlog

Blog now moved

2008-10-08T19:30:00.000-07:00

This is my old AOL blog, moved here in October 2008 when AOL abandoned blogs. These posts are from 2006 and earlier.

My new miscellany blog: Truncated Thoughts

My new bicycling blog: ZBicyclist

Technorati Profile

2006-09-28T19:23:00.000-07:00

http://www.technorati.com/claim/6yndxgntez

Cablevision's Lustgarten Proves the Afterlife Exists

2006-09-22T04:59:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street Journal reports on September 22, 2006 that "Cablevision awarded options to a vice chairman (Marc Lustgarten) after his 1999 death but backdated them to make it appear they were awarded when he was still alive."

This would seem to undercut the argument that stock options are incentives for future management performance.

But, on second glance, this is proof that there is life after death. Why would such a greedy group of men as the average telecommunications upper management team share the options bounty unless Lustgarten had, in return, something he could provide?

One can imagine Marley appearing to Scrooge, not to ask him to reform, but to ask him for 666,666 options at $6.66 a share, backdated to 6/6/1866.

In return, Marley might hint at solar storms or meteors disrupting sattelite TV transmissions, lightning strikes or floods at telephone switching centers, and perhaps plagues of boils inflicted on municipal officials who don't yet see the same clear vision of the future that Cablevision Systems Corporation does.

The occasional plague of locusts might distract media attention when weak quarterly earnings were reported.

If Lustgarten (and I love that last name for a corporate executive) could arrange for congressmen to have visits from their "guardian angels", his options might be quite cost-effective relative to the standard methods of lobbying.

So, I find in this story hope for a better life in the hereafter. Maybe I should post this on Beliefnet.

Want to get hit by a car? Wear a helmet!

2006-09-16T17:44:00.000-07:00

That headline is one of many comments in response to a study by Ian Walker. The study has been getting a lot of attention in the bicycling community, but is basically junk science. Let’s start with a condensed version of the press release:

“Drivers pass closer when overtaking cyclists wearing helmets than when overtaking bare-headed cyclists, increasing the risk of a collision, the research has found.

Dr Ian Walker, a traffic psychologist from the University of Bath in the UK, used a bicycle fitted with a computer and an ultrasonic distance sensor to record data from over 2,500 overtaking motorists in Salisbury and Bristol.

Dr Walker, who was struck by a bus and a truck in the course of the experiment, spent half the time wearing a cycle helmet and half the time bare-headed. He was wearing the helmet both times he was struck.

He found that drivers were as much as twice as likely to get particularly close to the bicycle when he was wearing the helmet. Drivers passed an average of 3 inches closer with the helmet than without

The research has been accepted for publication in the journal Accident Analysis & Prevention.

"This study shows that when drivers overtake a cyclist, the margin for error they leave is affected by the cyclist's appearance," said Dr Walker, from the University's Department of Psychology.

"By leaving the cyclist less room, drivers reduce the safety margin that cyclists need to deal with obstacles in the road, such as drain covers and potholes, as well as the margin for error in their own judgements.

To test another theory, Dr Walker donned a long wig to see whether there was any difference in passing distance when drivers thought they were overtaking what appeared to be a female cyclist.

Whilst wearing the wig, drivers gave him an average of 5.5 inches more space when passing.

Junk science?

While this article has gotten wide publicity in the cycling community, it’s basically junk science. It’s good for stimulating conversation, but that’s about it.

1. Experimenter bias is likely. Walker’s hypothesis is that drivers are subconsciously making judgments about how close they can pass. But then he goes and does all the experimentation using himself as a subject. It is well known that an experimenter who knows what results he wants, or what results he should get, can unconsciously influence the outcome. That’s been known for decades, and if he is a research psychologist he would have learned this in the first introductory research methods course.

This might occur quite easily. One of the cues cyclist give off is how straight a line they maintain versus how wobbly they are. Did he wobble more when he was farther out in the lane, perhaps because he was unfamiliar with being out that far? Did he do the conditions in a certain order, so he was more relaxed with the equipment as he went along? Lots of things can happen, which is why you usually wouldn’t use yourself as the only subject.

2. How bad of a cyclist is he? In the course of the study, he was hit twice. This is in about 200 miles of cycling. This is an incredibly high accident rate, which indicates that something other than normal cycling behavior is going on.

3. Incredible labeling. Walker sometimes rode with a wig in order to gauge motorists reactions to female cyclists. But there’s more to being a female cyclist than just long hair, and looking at Walker’s picture it seems more likely he was measuring the response to cyclists with long hair. But he persists in the article in insisting this indicates something about being female. Why?

The managerial version of the published study is at http://www.drianwalker.com/overtaking/overtakingprobrief.pdf

The press release from Walker can be found at http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-09/uob-wah091106.php

Dr. Ian Walker's picture is below. How feminine is he with a wig?

Who picked these holidays, anyway?

2006-09-15T20:13:00.000-07:00

Here's next year's holidays at the company I work for:

New Year's Monday, January 1

Memorial Day Monday, May 28

Independence Day Wednesday, July 4

Labor Day Monday, September 3

Thanksgiving Thursday, November 22

Friday, November 23

Christmas Day Tuesday, December 25

New Years Eve Monday, December 31

These are pretty standard, but there's one interesting thing about them. Of the 8 holidays, 5 of them are bad weather holidays. Only 3 have decent weather (Memorial Day, July 4th, and Labor Day).

What were we thinking?

“Our character is measured by our desires.”

2006-09-14T18:41:00.000-07:00

“Our character is measured by our desires."

Emanuel Swedenborg from the ARCANA COELESTIA 5128

Interesting to contrast this with basic Buddhist philosophy:

Suffering is universal,
It is caused by desire and yearning
Suffering can be prevented and overcome and
Eradication of desires can lead to removal of suffering.

(from http://www.hindunet.org/avatars/buddha/index.htm but available in many places)

Swedenborg is a bit more optimistic: in his view, we can't really eliminate desires so much as focus desires -- focusing on the desire to do good, the love of the use (desire to be of service), and the love of God.

Reading skills of tech support

2006-09-14T06:18:00.000-07:00

Actual correspondence with regard to equipment for an "absolutely top priority" project:

August 09, Dan: Attached is an exception request requesting two 500Gb external hard drives.

Sept 13: Dan: Steve, an external hard drive was delivered to me today. My exception request was for two 500Gb drives. I received one 80Gb drive. Do you know what happened?

Sept 13: Steve, Tech VP: Sorry, Dan, the people who transcribed the request form got 300 Gb from the exception request form and not 500Gb. Send back the incorrect part and we'll try to get the right one ordered and delivered.

So, we asked for TWO 500Gb drives. This was "transcribed" to ONE 300Gb drive, and they sent an 80Gb drive -- five weeks later.

Best Buy has larger drives (600Gb) for $349 with one day delivery, or available for pickup at 4 of their stores within 10 miles.

The worst part is, there's a decent chance that when Dan returns the 80Gb drive, there will be further disruption because he didn't return the 300Gb drive. There's also a decent likelihood we will have to go through the whole approval process again.

Who is Uranus really named for?

2006-09-11T05:47:00.000-07:00

The planet Uranus, forever the butt of jokes, might have had a different name.

"William Herschel tried to name his new planet ``Georgium Sidus" for King George III, but the international astronomy community would have none of that, calling it Uranus instead." writes Owen Gingerich in the Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/09/03/planet_politics/?page=full

Given that George III has been the butt of many jokes in America, that's not surprising.

The recent controversey about Pluto has brought many of these jokes back out of the closet. Consider today's Brewster Rocket comic:

"Sorry O-Dor, the other planets voted that Uranus jokes don't get old."

O-dor: "You mean the planet formerly known as Uranus. We got a corporate sponsor to buy naming rights to our planet. No longer will Uranus be the butt of jokes."

"Who is your sponsor?"

O-Dor: "Preparation H"

http://www.comicspage.com/brewster/brewster.html

This will be my fourth mention to Uranus being the butt of jokes, so perhaps it's time to end this entry.

What Wine Goes with Peanut Butter and Jelly?

2006-09-07T05:23:00.000-07:00

Bill Daley, in the Chicago Tribune's food section, ponders the issue of what wine to serve with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/food/chi-0609060019sep06,1,1620992.column?coll=chi-leisuregoodeating-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

A top entry is this one:

"Rare Wine Co. Madeira Boston Bual

Made from the bual wine grape, this Madeira is an especially pleasing tribute to the city of Boston (a major consumer of Madeira back in colonial days) plenty of oak, leather, figs and spice. The wine gave the peanut butter a boost and some tasters thought it added kick to the jelly, too. $40 (3 corkscrews)"

I sent this to a colleague in France, who has just been over for some collaboration. During that time, the phrase "peanut butter sample" came up, as a description of a particular type of statistical sampling philosophy. He'd never had peanut butter, so another colleague introduced him. His French palate was unimpressed, probably similar to an American trying that Australian concoction, Vegemite. Now he will truly think Americans have no taste buds.

A $40 wine is great with PB&J -- especially if you leave out the PB&J.

But even PB&J can go upscale: "Chef Grant Achatz's take on "PB&J," a single peeled grape coated with peanut butter and wrapped in the thinnest toast wafer, was a sensation when the Lincoln Park restaurant [Alinea] opened in May 2005.

Joseph Catterson, Alinea's wine director and sommelier, approached that PB&J with a half-dozen possible pairings before deciding a glass of Sercial "Charleston" Madeira "

Now THAT sounds more French!

Death, Where Is Thy Stingray?

2006-09-06T18:54:00.000-07:00

Yes, that's the actual title of a memorial article on Steve Irwin, the crocodile hunter, on SOMA

http://www.somareview.com/deathwhereisthystingray.cfm

repeated on Beliefnet:

http://www.beliefnet.com/nllp/Inspiration.aspx?WT.mc_id=Inspiration03&date=09-06-2006

I don't get cable, so my exposure to Steve Irwin was limited. Still, I don't think he'd mind the joke much. Probably would tell it himself, if he could.

Toyota Prius tops 500,000 mark

2006-09-05T19:59:00.000-07:00

I bought a Prius earlier this summer. I hesitated because (1) I hate spending that much money on an asset that depreciates, and (2) I really wanted to wait until the technology was proven in a larger number of cars. I bought a Ford Windstar the first year out, and let's just say it was lucky for me I got the extended warranty.

But Toyota has sold a lot of these. According to http://www.toyota.com/movingforward/2006/july/prius.html?url=image_button they've now sold over half a million, over half of these in the U.S. This (and the good quality reputation) have made me feel better about the purchase.

Germany interested in Czech territory again?

2006-09-01T18:10:00.000-07:00

Der Spiegel reports with some glee that a right wing group in Germany has been trying to attract young people with a campaign featuring an attractive woman and the slogan "Germany is hot" (Deutsch Ist Geil!)

Problem #1: The young woman is actually Czech. An attractive Czech model, but still a Czech. Not ... a ... German. Didn't this issue get settled in the 1940's?

Problem #2: The image is "hot" in more than one way -- as in stolen. The owners of the image are starting legal action for copyright infringement.

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,434760,00.html

Should Bush debate Iran?

2006-08-29T17:30:00.000-07:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060829/pl_nm/nuclear_iran_dc_92

"TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday challenged President Bush to a televised debate and voiced defiance as a deadline neared for Iran to halt work the West fears is a step toward building nuclear bombs. "

My guess: Ahmadinejad will offer to put Iran's nuclear capacity in a lockbox.

He can get a deal on cheap lockboxes from Al Gore.

The Onion fact-checks?

2006-08-22T20:35:00.000-07:00

I was interviewed by a free-lance writer earlier this year, who didn't get proper contact information from me. I'm quoting from his request:

" The editors I'm working with need contact information for
people I'm quoting, just for fact-checking purposes. Can I get phone
numbers from : Joe ____, Dave ___, Mike Kruger. I moved all the way up here and then realized I didn't have their info. My fault entirely. ... I've got a good shot
at getting this ... story published in a local magazine this
fall. .... I've recently moved to Madison to take a job with the Onion."

Is he hinting I'm about to be in The Onion? Surely he can't. That would mean The Onion does fact-checking! I thought that was the type of thing only the Boston Globe and the New York Times and such did -- or maybe now it is only The Onion that fact-checks?

Of course, I didn't see anyone else with this story: http://www.theonion.com/content/node/51848

UPDATE: Scott informs me that, while he works for The Onion, the story is being written for a Chicago-area magazine.

Today's depressing statistic: beating only Turkey.

2006-08-21T16:57:00.000-07:00

"A survey of 32 European countries, the US and Japan has revealed that only Turkey is less willing than the US to accept evolution as fact."

(Jeff Hecht article in New Scientist based on surveys by Jon Miller of Michigan State University)

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19125653.700?DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=mg19125653.700

"Even though the average American has more years of education than when Miller began his surveys 20 years ago, the percentage of people in the country who accept the idea of evolution has declined from 45 in 1985 to 40 in 2005 (Science, vol 313, p 765). That's despite a series of widely publicised advances in genetics, including genetic sequencing, which shows strong overlap of the human genome with those of chimpanzees and mice."

More proof there's no response to gas prices

2006-08-12T18:13:00.000-07:00

I'd earlier noted that while the majority of people SAID they were cutting down on gasoline usage, gasoline usage was actually up slightly. [ http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/entries/2006/08/09/watch-what-we-do-not-what-we-say/783 ]

Here's more proof Americans are still only talking, not acting from this Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial:

"The Environmental Protection Agency reports that 2006 model vehicles sold in the U.S. average a tepid 21 miles per gallon, the same as in 2005. ...

For all the fuss about increased energy costs and Middle East turmoil, the 2006 fleet average for all makers is 5 percent below the peak of 22.1 mpg all the way back in 1987-88. Despite a worsening energy picture, fuel economy seems to be locked in reverse."

Floyd Landis -- my theory

2006-08-12T16:33:00.000-07:00

I bicycle a lot, but don't race. Oh, I've gotten a day license for a cyclo-cross race or two, but I'm much too slow to dream. With 30% below normal lung capacity due to sarcoidosis there's not much hope of competing with my age group.

Nevertheless, I follow racing a bit, and acquaintances ask me what I think happened with Floyd Landis. Here's my theory.

Only a tiny bit separates first from not-first at the top level of competition, and that difference is worth a lot of money. Plus, there are a lot of races, and so there's a lot of need to recover as fast as possible. Under these conditions, there are huge temptations to cheat. It's also hard and expensive to test. The testing protocols are statistical, and even the first level test for the A samples cost $300 each, so the testing is hardly continuous. At low levels of drug, the type that fly below the testing radar, you probably aren't doing much damage to your body (relative to what you are already doing by a career as a professional athlete).

So, temptation$ plus low likelihood of being caught plus little physical risk... that adds up to a high likelihood that there is a lot of cheating. There's evidence posted on this site http://www.cycling4all.com/index.php?content=d_news12.php that cycling and baseball have the highest rates of positive drug results.

Without any evidence whatever, I would guess that Landis was taking a complicated pattern of doping with testosterone (perhaps to improve recovery) and then adding epitestosterone as a masking agent to hide this (since the screener, $300 test, measures whether the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone is above 4:1). In Landis's disappointment at finishing stage 16 so poorly, and perhaps because he had too much alcohol to drown his sorrows, he did not follow this regime to the letter.

The next day, he may have realized this might have been the case, which is why he drank so much water during the stage (a count of 70 water bottles either drunk or poured over his body was noted). This may have been an attempt to flush. In addition, a rider from the T-Mobile team drafted him during his entire ride, up until the final climb. The T-Mobile rider wasn't helping Floyd because his teammate Kloden was one of Floyd's rivals. The T-Mobile rider was trying to hang on to Floyd in hopes of having morestrength at the end and winning the stage in the final sprint. If so, Floyd would have had only a 1 in 70 chance of being tested (they test the winner, the leader, and two other random individuals) and would probably have gotten away with it. But the T-Mobile rider couldn't hang on and Floyd was tested.

So, my guess is Floyd was moderately doping, but messed up and got caught.

Who advertises to those with empty Inboxes?

2006-08-12T15:58:00.000-07:00

I just cleared out all the messages from an e-mail account I seldom use. It's mostly used to provide an e-mail address when I'd really just as soon not provide one, and mostly accumulates spam. After clearing it out, I re-checked the in-box to be sure it was empty. It was, but the empty spot contained 3 ads -- all for lonelyhearts services.

Asian women look for men - Women from Philippines, Thailand, and other asian countries

Single in Chicago? - Meet quality Singles in Chicago Parties, Trips and Introductions.

eHarmony® Online Dating - Looking for a Serious Relationship? Let eHarmony Help. Free Profile!

This makes sense, now that I think about it.

Watch what we do, not what we say

2006-08-09T19:29:00.000-07:00

Today's fun pair of facts, from the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/09/us/09gas.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

"In the Pew Research survey of 1,182 Americans — 1,048 of them drivers — 55 percent said they were driving less because of the recent increases in gasoline prices. The poll, taken from June 20 to July 16, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Yet Americans’ overall gasoline appetite has barely budged. Total use this year is up about one-half percent to 1 percent compared with 2005, according to federal figures — a slower rate of growth than in the past, but hardly the mark of a nation with its foot fully on the brake."

You are not alone

2006-08-07T18:21:00.000-07:00

Today's fun fact, from Dannon:

Did you know you have over 100 trillion bacteria cells living in your body right now?

In fact, you have about 10 times the number of bacteria in your intestinal tract as you do cells in your entire body!

(OK, that's two facts.)

Chase reluctant to give me my money, part 3

2006-08-07T17:17:00.000-07:00

This instance is less important, but this time we also include a comparison to another bank.

Some 12-15 years ago I purchased some state of Illinois bonds from First Chicago (now JP Morgan Chase). At some point, they sold the rights to service some of these bonds to US Bank in Minnesota. Two bonds matured this year on the same day, August 1, one from JP Morgan Chase and the other from US Bank.

I mailed them both, registered, on Friday July 28.

I mailed one to US Bank in St. Paul, MN. I received a check Wednesday, August 2, which is as soon as it would be possible to receive a check. That's good service.

I mailed the other to JP Morgan Chase in Chicago. I just received the check today, August 7th -- 5 days later. Where has this check been? It's been on a long tour. I mailed the bond to Chicago. The check was issued in Dallas. The check was mailed from zip code 35210, somewhere in Alabama.

The net effect of this cross-country tour is that a bond that should have been paid out August 1 gets paid out August 8th -- one week later (since the banks are already closed tonight -- it won't be credited until tomorrow even if I use an ATM).

This is called cash flow management. I know what it's called, but I don't have to like it.

Earlier installments of this series:

http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/entries/2006/07/04/chase-reluctant-to-give-me-my-money-part-2/772

http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/entries/750

The obvious question is: when am I going to move banks? It's a pain to move an account -- especially one with several automated payments. So, I only want to do it once. The nearest US Bank branch is 3.5 miles away, which is possible. Maybe I've found a candidate.

Synergy -- or sometimes that pile of parts comes in handy.

2006-08-05T19:31:00.000-07:00

Sometimes all that crap in my basement comes in handy.

I went into REI to get some camping stuff. They were having their "garage sale", which basically is a bunch of broken stuff cheap. They had a nice Blackburn floor pump with a built-in gage for $10.

The problem was that the head was broken, making the pump useless. I remembered I had kept the hose and head off an old pump. I had once fixed that old pump by getting one of those pump repair kits that comes with the appropriate hardware (e.g. fitting and hose clamp), and had put it "somewhere".

Lo and behold, I quickly found the old hose and head, and fixed the pump to working order in less than five minutes.

Now, if only I could figure out what to do with the rest of the crap.

Lest bicyclists get too sanctimonious about drugs

2006-08-04T20:01:00.000-07:00

Interestingly, in a Velonews article on Floyd Landis's problems (testing positive for testosterone doping at the Tour de France) there's a Google ad -- for testosterone usable for doping! Velonews probably just agrees to let Google post ads in this area and has no control over their content. Google just matches up key words. The result is, unfortunately, embarrassing.

The ad's in the lower left corner of the picture. The screen print transferred poorly to this journal page, due to AOL's limits on the size of images.

I wrote Velonews about this, but they didn't reply and it wasn't one of the letters to the editor they posted on the website.

Bicyclists are a drain on the environment?? #2

2006-07-28T12:57:00.000-07:00

Now I'm actually reading the article, and there are some interesting little
facts along the way.

There's also a discussion on rec.bicycles.misc here:
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.misc/browse_frm/thread/a6a739a9a02b0b59/37366830108b9b3a?hl=en#37366830108b9b3a

Some of those facts:

Average automobile in US uses 3.8 MJ/km. This is substantially higher than
the average for the OECD countries of 2.5 MJ/km. So, roughly speaking, if we
drove the smaller, more efficient vehicles common elsewhere in the developed
world we could drive just as far just as often and still use one-third less
gasoline.

A person on a bicycle uses 17kJ/km directly, or 77kJ/km in terms of food
energy (since the ratio of work done to food energy consumed is about 22%).
The energy required to produce, process, and transform the food is 5.75
times greater than the energy in the food, so the total energy cost is about
0.44MJ/km, or about 1/6 to 1/9th that of the automobile. There's a lot of
difference between 17kj and 440kj, which might explain some of the
discrepancies in some of the discussions on this newsgroup over time over
the food energy cost of cycling.

Several dozen studies show exercise expenditure of 4.2 mJ/wk (about 1000
kcal, or what we usually call 1000 calories) is associated with a reduction
in all-cause mortality.

The fatality rate (from accidents) is assumed to be 12 times as high per
kilometer for cycling as for driving. Fatalities, of course, lower future
energy consumption.

Increasing logevity does not change end-of-life healthcare requirements, but
extends the healthy years.

Ulrich's conclusion is that bicycling that replaces automobile use (even if
you still own the automobile) lowers total per capita energy consumption
from all sources by -.005 (i.e. half of 1%), even allowing for the increased
energy used by living longer. 0.5% is well within the error range of his
analysis, so the effect could be zero.

However, if your biking kilometers don't replace automotive use, you don't
save energy, but still live longer. Therefore your energy use increases by
.037 (3.7%) This makes sense -- many of us have noted that driving to a
ride uses up energy rather than saves it.

Electric scooters or electric bicycles have similar energy patterns and
fatality patterns as a bicycle (they just use electricity instead of food),
but don't increase longevity. Therefore, they have a more positive impact on
energy use over a lifetime.

As others have noted, Ulrich assumes the cyclist still owns the same number
of vehicles so he misses the energy benefits of not manufacturing the car.
Are there a lot of such people with "one less car" in their household (who
aren't posting on this newsgroup)? Is there an estimate somewhere of how
many? If there were such an estimate, this could be factored in.

All in all, the study documents its assumptions and is presented in a clear
manner and is worth a look.

Earl wondered who paid for the research. The paper doesn't say, but Ulrich
does have another bicycle paper in his resume, and this usually doesn't
indicate hostility:

Taylor Randall and Karl Ulrich, "Product Variety, Supply Chain Structure,
and Firm Performance: Analysis of the U.S. Bicycle Industry," Management
Science, Vol. 47, No. 12, December 2001, p. 1588-1604.

There's also this chapter:

Karl Ulrich, Taylor Randall, Marshall Fisher, and David Reibstein, "Managing
Product Variety: A Study of the Bicycle Industry," in Managing Product
Variety, Tech-Hua Ho and Chris Tang (editors), Kluwer Academic Publishers,
1998.

There's a bit of small-world theory involved here, since I just presented a
paper extending one of Reibstein's other models at an INFORMS conference,
(and Management Science is an INFORMS journal).

Bicyclists are a drain on the environment?? #1

2006-07-27T19:51:00.000-07:00

I'm indebted to Richard B for this gem:

"Research by UPenn professor Karl Ulrich came to the conclusion that
bicycles offer little benefit to the environment.

Why you may ask...

Because Cyclists live longer and therefore are more of a drain on energy
and resources!

Here is a link to the research paper in Adobe format.
http://tinyurl.com/eae2d: or

http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/~ulrich/documents/ulrich-cycling-enviro-jul06.pdf "

This reminds me of some of the old smoking arguments.
Governments argued that they should be compensated because of the cost of
taking care of sick smokers.
Tobacco companies argued that no compensation was appropriate because, since
smokers died sooner, they collected overall less in government benefits over
their lifetimes.

As I work on retirement planning -- retirement not being imminent, but
planning being necessary -- it's pretty clear that one of the big factors in
how much money I need to save up in retirement is how long I should plan on
living after retirement.