Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Privatize the Illinois Lottery?

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich  has an interesting state lottery twist.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0605240150may24,1,5263300.story

He proposes selling the lottery to make more money now for "education" -- but the state would then get no money from the lottery beginning in 2024 (when today's babies graduate high school). Of course, he won't be governor then. And the big extra dollars this plan would provide would arrive in the state coffers in the next four years, matching what Governor Rod B. hopes will be a triumphant second term.

The Tribune editorial notes: "If Illinois schools receive more funding, some of it should go to teaching the rudiments of economics."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0605240022may24,1,5049536.story

Did I mention it's an election year? The only suspense is whether opponent Judy Topinka can come up with something even dumber.  She gave us Alan Keyes as a candidate for senator in 2004, so I don't want to underestimate her.

Sunday, May 21, 2006

They still write American fiction?

I don't read much fiction any more, but I am still surprised to find out how little.

The New York Times today did a poll of "experts" to see what they thought was "the single best work of American fiction published in the last 25 years."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/books/fiction-25-years.html?8bu&emc=bu

Twenty-seven books are listed as receiving multiple votes. I have read none of them.

This can probably be best interpreted as a combination of appalling ignorance on my part and the shrinking relevance of modern American long fiction to modern American life. (to get more extreme, consider modern American poetry)

I've printed out the list and I am resolved to read at least 3 of these books by the end of the year.  Complicating this is that I've realized there are a lot of earlier classics that I would benefit from re-reading or have never read; I've been wading through "Anna Karenina" for some time now.  (Clearly 19th century Russians had a longer attention span than 21st century Americans.)

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Price Elasticity of Gasoline

I see more bicycle commuters this year, possibly due to gas prices going up. So, I started to wonder about the price elasticity of gasoline.

Price elasticity is the amount demand changes in response to price. To oversimplify just a bit, a price elasticity of -2.0 (typical of many consumer packaged goods) means if the price goes up 10% the demand goes  -2.0 * 10% = down 20%.

So, what does a bit of Googling get me?

The Mackinac Center for Public Policy http://www.mackinac.org/article.aspx?ID=1247 estimates the short run elasticity at -0.2 and the long run elasticity at -0.7.  This makes sense -- in the short term, you are still driving the same car from the same house to the same job. In the longer run, you are likely to change one or more of these things.

An FTC study in 2005 http://www.ftc.gov/reports/gasprices05/050705gaspricesrpt.pdf cited studies showing  a -0.23 elasticity in the short run -0.6 elasticity in the long run (more than 1 year). The long run number is from Molly Espey's meta-analysis of 42 studies.

The Environmental Economics blog quoting a Wall Steet Journal article, http://www.env-econ.net/2006/05/inelastic_short.html quotes the WSJ as saying "Research suggests it takes years for higher gas prices to meaningfully damp consumption. Opinions differ, but many experts say that, in the short term, the "price elasticity" of U.S. gasoline use is as low as 0.1. That means gas prices have to rise 10% to produce an initial 1% drop in demand.

The Cascadia Scorecard Weblog http://cascadiascorecard.typepad.com/blog/2005/09/is_gas_elastic.html notes that "In 1999 you could buy a gallon of gas in Washington state for less than a buck.  As recently as 3 years ago, gas prices averaged about  $1.20 a gallon.  Right now, though, expect to shell out about $2.85.

Washington_per_capita_gasSo what has a 136% price hike done to gasoline consumption?  As it turns out, not a lot.  In 2002, the average Washington resident went through about 8.4 gallons of gas per week.  Based on data through July 2005, that's now down to about 8.1 gallons per week -- a 4 percent reduction. (graph at right)"

If there were no other factors involved, this would be, let's see, a 136% price hike, and a 4% reduction -- that would be a -.03 elasticity.  But there are other factors involved, and at least there's been a leveling off.

So, everybody agrees the short term elasticity is low. So, for those interested in profits NOW, the answer is try and move the price up.

As for the long term -- well, as Keynes said, "in the long run, we are all dead."

So, I'm riding my bicycle. And, when the Iraq war started, I feared it would go badly and instead of increasing the flow of oil had a decent chance of doing the opposite. So, I bought BP and Shell stock. I'm happy with that decision.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Bubble Wrap Biking

I was biking this afternoon in the rain. The rain and wind encouraged a large number of maple seeds to cover the bike path near Caldwell and Devon. They snapped under the tires. It sounded almost like biking over bubble wrap.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Chicago Botanic Garden adds Marxist-Leninist feel.

My wife and I have been members of the Chicago Botanic Garden in Glencoe for over 25 years. Over that time, we’ve seen a number of new gardens added: the Japanese Garden, the English Walled Garden, the Enabling Garden, the Prairie Restoration Garden, the Waterfall Garden, and others. Each space is different. Last winter as I walked around the construction, I looked forward to the opening of the Escalande Garden in the large lawn leading down from the education center to the lagoon. Yesterday I saw it for the first time.

 

Frankly, it is very disappointing. The overly-large areas give the garden a Soviet-era feel. Perhaps to fully create the mood a giant statue of Lenin might be perfect (and these are surely available cheap from eastern European sources). Even on Mother’s Day at 3 p.m., one of the most crowded times of the year, the overall scale seemed too large for the crowd.

 

There were large masses of tulips blooming. The tulips were individually wonderful. Put into such large masses, they seemed designed to impress not so much by artistry as by their sheer number.

 

The signage indicates this garden has “world-class design”.  This in itself is curious. “World-class” is basically a B.S. phrase that means nothing.  Furthermore, if the garden is really “world-class”, would they need signs telling you that? I don’t remember signs touting the “world-class” nature of the gardens of Paris, nor are such signs needed. The signs were surely written and ordered before the garden was opened, and written by the garden itself, so the amount of self-congratulation involved is ... world-class.

 

It’s a wonderful garden and not everybody likes all parts equally. I plan to avoid this part, or maybe focus on the lagoon fountain as I walk through it.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Church audience participation goes awry

Bishop Kline, the head bishop of our denomination, was here this weekend for the marriage seminar. He preached this morning, using the first section of Swedenborg's Conjugal Love for his text. In that chapter, there are imaginary heavens. Some people imagine they will be happy just to get to heaven. Some people imagine heaven will be a chance to talk and laugh forever. Others imagine heaven will be a place of sensual delights (here represented by grapes and a box of Dunkin Donuts Munchkins), and others imagine they will be on a throne, ruling others. All are dissatisfied with their heaven after a few days. The analogy to various false (or optimistic) beliefs about what marriage is about is clear.Go to fullsize image
 
Appropriate props had been set up and the Bishop asked for 5 volunteers. Mark was the man happy just to get into heaven. Malcolm and Erik pantomined talking. A woman I didn't know sat on the throne. There was one spot open, so I was left with the sensual delights of grapes and donut holes.
 
I thought I should act the part, so I occasionally ate some grapes while the bishop when on with his sermon. Then, for reasons I don't fully understand, I wondered whether I could fit an entire Dunkin Donuts Munchkin into my mouth whole and then eat it.  I opened wide and popped that Munchkin right in. Unfortunately, the bishop walks around during his sermon and evidently this was visible to most of the congregation. A wave of laughter ensued. The bishop turned around and caught me in mid-chew, but I figured this was an event best explained later, rather than right on the spot. 
 
I didn't eat any moreMunchkins during the service.
Lightning did not strike. Nor did the bishop, known to tell a good joke himself, seem particularly concerned afterward.
 
We'll see how long it is before I'm asked to volunteer again.
 
Background texts for the sermon:
 
The text, from Conjugal Love section 3, doesn't actually mention donuts: "What else is heaven but a paradise, stretching from east to west and from south to north-- a paradise wherein are fruit trees and delightful flowers, and in the center the magnificent Tree of Life, around which the blessed will sit, eating fruits of delicate flavor, and adorned with wreaths of the most fragrant flowers.
 
And since, by reason of the breathing of perpetual spring, these fruits and flowers are born and reborn daily and with infinite variety; and since, by their perpetual birth and blossom, and by the constant vernal temperature, the mind is continually renewed; the blessed must needs attract and breathe out new joys from day to day, and thus be restored to the flower of their age, and thereby to the primitive state into which Adam and his wife were created, and so be led back into their paradise which has been transferred from earth to heaven....
 
[But this heaven, like the others, isn't enough: ] "It is now the seventh day since we came into this paradise. When we entered, our minds seemed as though elevated into heaven and admitted to the inmost enjoyment of its joys. But after three days, this happiness began to grow dull and to be diminished in our minds and become imperceptible, and so to become null."
 
The point is that while it may help to imagine what heaven -- or an ideal marriage -- is like, these ideas ultimately aren't enough.  It is only love (in being useful to others) that creates a true bond.

Friday, May 12, 2006

Today's "Wish I'd Said That"

> One wonders how earlier generations survived.

well, most of them are gone now ;-{

Tuesday, May 9, 2006

Remembering up, now down

Quick: Write down the names of the people you remember from high school. Now cross off all the ones who were in your same year. I'll bet what's left has a lot more kids that were older than you than younger than you.

This makes sense. If you were on a JV sports team, you probably knew the names of a lot of the guys on varsity.  If you made varsity, you probably paid little attention to the guys on JV.

This leads to an interesting assymmetry when you run into people later. They might remember you, but you don't remember them, or vice-versa.