Blog now moved

This is my old AOL blog, moved here in October 2008 when AOL abandoned blogs. These posts are from 2006 and earlier.

My new miscellany blog: Truncated Thoughts

My new bicycling blog: ZBicyclist

Technorati Profile

http://www.technorati.com/claim/6yndxgntez

Cablevision's Lustgarten Proves the Afterlife Exists

The Wall Street Journal reports on September 22, 2006 that "Cablevision awarded options to a vice chairman (Marc Lustgarten) after his 1999 death but backdated them to make it appear they were awarded when he was still alive."

This would seem to undercut the argument that stock options are incentives for future management performance.

But, on second glance, this is proof that there is life after death. Why would such a greedy group of men as the average telecommunications upper management team share the options bounty unless Lustgarten had, in return, something he could provide?

One can imagine Marley appearing to Scrooge, not to ask him to reform, but to ask him for 666,666 options at $6.66 a share, backdated to 6/6/1866. 

In return, Marley might hint at solar storms or meteors disrupting sattelite TV transmissions, lightning strikes or floods at telephone switching centers, and perhaps plagues of boils inflicted on municipal officials who don't yet see the same clear vision of the future that Cablevision Systems Corporation does.

The occasional plague of locusts might distract media attention when weak quarterly earnings were reported.

If Lustgarten (and I love that last name for a corporate executive) could arrange for congressmen to have visits from their "guardian angels", his options might be quite cost-effective relative to the standard methods of lobbying.

So, I find in this story hope for a better life in the hereafter. Maybe I should post this on Beliefnet.

Want to get hit by a car? Wear a helmet!

That headline is one of many comments in response to a study by Ian Walker. The study has been getting a lot of attention in the bicycling community, but is basically junk science. Let’s start with a condensed version of the press release: 

“Drivers pass closer when overtaking cyclists wearing helmets than when overtaking bare-headed cyclists, increasing the risk of a collision, the research has found.

Dr Ian Walker, a traffic psychologist from the University of Bath in the UK, used a bicycle fitted with a computer and an ultrasonic distance sensor to record data from over 2,500 overtaking motorists in Salisbury and Bristol.

Dr Walker, who was struck by a bus and a truck in the course of the experiment, spent half the time wearing a cycle helmet and half the time bare-headed. He was wearing the helmet both times he was struck.

He found that drivers were as much as twice as likely to get particularly close to the bicycle when he was wearing the helmet. Drivers passed an average of 3 inches closer with the helmet than without

The research has been accepted for publication in the journal Accident Analysis & Prevention.

"This study shows that when drivers overtake a cyclist, the margin for error they leave is affected by the cyclist's appearance," said Dr Walker, from the University's Department of Psychology.

"By leaving the cyclist less room, drivers reduce the safety margin that cyclists need to deal with obstacles in the road, such as drain covers and potholes, as well as the margin for error in their own judgements.

To test another theory, Dr Walker donned a long wig to see whether there was any difference in passing distance when drivers thought they were overtaking what appeared to be a female cyclist.

Whilst wearing the wig, drivers gave him an average of 5.5 inches more space when passing.

Junk science?

While this article has gotten wide publicity in the cycling community, it’s basically junk science. It’s good for stimulating conversation, but that’s about it.

1. Experimenter bias is likely. Walker’s hypothesis is that drivers are subconsciously making judgments about how close they can pass.  But then he goes and does all the experimentation using himself as a subject.  It is well known that an experimenter who knows what results he wants, or what results he should get, can unconsciously influence the outcome. That’s been known for decades, and if he is a research psychologist he would have learned this in the first introductory research methods course.

This might occur quite easily. One of the cues cyclist give off is how straight a line they maintain versus how wobbly they are. Did he wobble more when he was farther out in the lane, perhaps because he was unfamiliar with being out that far? Did he do the conditions in a certain order, so he was more relaxed with the equipment as he went along? Lots of things can happen, which is why you usually wouldn’t use yourself as the only subject.

2. How bad of a cyclist is he? In the course of the study, he was hit twice.  This is in about 200 miles of cycling. This is an incredibly high accident rate, which indicates that something other than normal cycling behavior is going on.

3. Incredible labeling.  Walker sometimes rode with a wig in order to gauge motorists reactions to female cyclists. But there’s more to being a female cyclist than just long hair, and looking at Walker’s picture it seems more likely he was measuring the response to cyclists with long hair. But he persists in the article in insisting this indicates something about being female. Why?

 

The managerial version of the published study is at http://www.drianwalker.com/overtaking/overtakingprobrief.pdf

The press release from Walker can be found at http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-09/uob-wah091106.php

Dr. Ian Walker's picture is below. How feminine is he with a wig?

 

Who picked these holidays, anyway?

Here's next year's holidays at the company I work for:

New Year's                                         Monday, January 1

Memorial Day                                      Monday, May 28

Independence Day                             Wednesday, July 4 

Labor Day                                           Monday, September 3

Thanksgiving                                       Thursday, November 22

                                                            Friday, November 23

Christmas Day                                    Tuesday, December 25

New Years Eve                                   Monday, December 31

These are pretty standard, but there's one interesting thing about them. Of the 8 holidays, 5 of them are bad weather holidays. Only 3 have decent weather (Memorial Day, July 4th, and Labor Day).

What were we thinking?

“Our character is measured by our desires.”

“Our character is measured by our desires." 

Emanuel Swedenborg   from the ARCANA COELESTIA 5128

Interesting to contrast this with basic Buddhist philosophy:

• Suffering is universal,
• It is caused by desire and yearning
• Suffering can be prevented and overcome and
• Eradication of desires can lead to removal of suffering.

(from http://www.hindunet.org/avatars/buddha/index.htm but available in many places)

Swedenborg is a bit more optimistic: in his view, we can't really eliminate desires so much as focus desires -- focusing on the desire to do good, the love of the use (desire to be of service), and the love of God.

 

Reading skills of tech support

Actual correspondence with regard to equipment for an "absolutely top priority" project:

August 09, Dan:    Attached is an exception request requesting two 500Gb external hard drives.

Sept 13: Dan:    Steve, an external hard drive was delivered to me today. My exception request was for two 500Gb drives. I received one 80Gb drive. Do you know what happened?

Sept 13: Steve, Tech VP:    Sorry, Dan, the people who transcribed the request form got 300 Gb from the exception request form and not 500Gb. Send back the incorrect part and we'll try to get the right one ordered and delivered.

So, we asked for TWO 500Gb drives. This was "transcribed" to ONE 300Gb drive, and they sent an 80Gb drive -- five weeks later. 

Best Buy has larger drives (600Gb) for $349 with one day delivery, or available for pickup at 4 of their stores within 10 miles. 

The worst part is, there's a decent chance that when Dan returns the 80Gb drive, there will be further disruption because he didn't return the 300Gb drive.  There's also a decent likelihood we will have to go through the whole approval process again.

Who is Uranus really named for?

The planet Uranus, forever the butt of jokes, might have had a different name.

"William Herschel tried to name his new planet ``Georgium Sidus" for King George III, but the international astronomy community would have none of that, calling it Uranus instead." writes Owen Gingerich in the Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/09/03/planet_politics/?page=full 

Given that George III has been the butt of many jokes in America, that's not surprising.

The recent controversey about Pluto has brought many of these jokes back out of the closet. Consider today's Brewster Rocket comic:

"Sorry O-Dor, the other planets voted that Uranus jokes don't get old."

O-dor: "You mean the planet formerly known as Uranus. We got a corporate sponsor to buy naming rights to our planet. No longer will Uranus be the butt of jokes."

"Who is your sponsor?"

O-Dor: "Preparation H"

http://www.comicspage.com/brewster/brewster.html

This will be my fourth mention to Uranus being the butt of jokes, so perhaps it's time to end this entry.

What Wine Goes with Peanut Butter and Jelly?

Bill Daley, in the Chicago Tribune's food section, ponders the issue of what wine to serve with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/food/chi-0609060019sep06,1,1620992.column?coll=chi-leisuregoodeating-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

A top entry is this one:

"Rare Wine Co. Madeira Boston Bual

Made from the bual wine grape, this Madeira is an especially pleasing tribute to the city of Boston (a major consumer of Madeira back in colonial days) plenty of oak, leather, figs and spice. The wine gave the peanut butter a boost and some tasters thought it added kick to the jelly, too. $40 (3 corkscrews)"

I sent this to a colleague in France, who has just been over for some collaboration. During that time, the phrase "peanut butter sample" came up, as a description of a particular type of statistical sampling philosophy. He'd never had peanut butter, so another colleague introduced him.  His French palate was unimpressed, probably similar to an American trying that Australian concoction, Vegemite.  Now he will truly think Americans have no taste buds.

A $40 wine is great with PB&J -- especially if you leave out the PB&J.

But even PB&J can go upscale: "Chef Grant Achatz's take on "PB&J," a single peeled grape coated with peanut butter and wrapped in the thinnest toast wafer, was a sensation when the Lincoln Park restaurant [Alinea] opened in May 2005.

Joseph Catterson, Alinea's wine director and sommelier, approached that PB&J with a half-dozen possible pairings before deciding a glass of Sercial "Charleston" Madeira "

Now THAT sounds more French!

Death, Where Is Thy Stingray?

Yes, that's the actual title of a memorial article on Steve Irwin, the crocodile hunter, on SOMA

http://www.somareview.com/deathwhereisthystingray.cfm

repeated on Beliefnet:

http://www.beliefnet.com/nllp/Inspiration.aspx?WT.mc_id=Inspiration03&date=09-06-2006

I don't get cable, so my exposure to Steve Irwin was limited. Still, I don't think he'd mind the joke much. Probably would tell it himself, if he could.

Toyota Prius tops 500,000 mark

I bought a Prius earlier this summer. I hesitated because (1) I hate spending that much money on an asset that depreciates, and (2) I really wanted to wait until the technology was proven in a larger number of cars.  I bought a Ford Windstar the first year out, and let's just say it was lucky for me I got the extended warranty.

But Toyota has sold a lot of these. According to http://www.toyota.com/movingforward/2006/july/prius.html?url=image_button they've now sold over half a million, over half of these in the U.S.  This (and the good quality reputation) have made me feel better about the purchase. 

Germany interested in Czech territory again?

Der Spiegel reports with some glee that a right wing group in Germany has been trying to attract young people with a campaign featuring an attractive woman and the slogan "Germany is hot" (Deutsch Ist Geil!)

Problem #1: The young woman is actually Czech. An attractive Czech model, but still a Czech. Not ... a ... German.  Didn't this issue get settled in the 1940's?

Problem #2: The image is "hot" in more than one way -- as in stolen. The owners of the image are starting legal action for copyright infringement.

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,434760,00.html

Should Bush debate Iran?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060829/pl_nm/nuclear_iran_dc_92

"TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday challenged        President Bush to a televised debate and voiced defiance as a deadline neared for        Iran to halt work the West fears is a step toward building nuclear bombs. "

My guess: Ahmadinejad will offer to put Iran's nuclear capacity in a lockbox.

He can get a deal on cheap lockboxes from Al Gore.

The Onion fact-checks?

I was interviewed by a free-lance writer earlier this year, who didn't get proper contact information from me. I'm quoting from his request:

" The editors I'm working with need contact information for
people I'm quoting, just for fact-checking purposes. Can I get phone
numbers from : Joe ____, Dave ___, Mike Kruger. I moved all the way up here and then realized I didn't have their info. My fault entirely. ... I've got a good shot
at getting this ... story published in a local magazine this
fall. .... I've recently moved to Madison to take a job with the Onion."

Is he hinting I'm about to be in The Onion? Surely he can't. That would mean The Onion does fact-checking! I thought that was the type of thing only the Boston Globe and the New York Times and such did  -- or maybe now it is only The Onion that fact-checks?

Of course, I didn't see anyone else with this story:  http://www.theonion.com/content/node/51848

 

UPDATE: Scott informs me that, while he works for The Onion, the story is being written for a Chicago-area magazine.

Today's depressing statistic: beating only Turkey.

"A survey of 32 European countries, the US and Japan has revealed that only Turkey is less willing than the US to accept evolution as fact."

(Jeff Hecht article in New Scientist based on surveys by Jon Miller of Michigan State University)

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19125653.700?DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=mg19125653.700

"Even though the average American has more years of education than when Miller began his surveys 20 years ago, the percentage of people in the country who accept the idea of evolution has declined from 45 in 1985 to 40 in 2005 (Science, vol 313, p 765). That's despite a series of widely publicised advances in genetics, including genetic sequencing, which shows strong overlap of the human genome with those of chimpanzees and mice."

More proof there's no response to gas prices

I'd earlier noted that while the majority of people SAID they were cutting down on gasoline usage, gasoline usage was actually up slightly. [ http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/entries/2006/08/09/watch-what-we-do-not-what-we-say/783 ]

Here's more proof Americans are still only talking, not acting from this Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial:

"The Environmental Protection Agency reports that 2006 model vehicles sold in the U.S. average a tepid 21 miles per gallon, the same as in 2005. ...

For all the fuss about increased energy costs and Middle East turmoil, the 2006 fleet average for all makers is 5 percent below the peak of 22.1 mpg all the way back in 1987-88. Despite a worsening energy picture, fuel economy seems to be locked in reverse."

Floyd Landis -- my theory

I bicycle a lot, but don't race. Oh, I've gotten a day license for a cyclo-cross race or two, but I'm much too slow to dream. With 30% below normal lung capacity due to sarcoidosis there's not much hope of competing with my age group. 

Nevertheless, I follow racing a bit, and acquaintances ask me what I think happened with Floyd Landis. Here's my theory.

Only a tiny bit separates first from not-first at the top level of competition, and that difference is worth a lot of money. Plus, there are a lot of races, and so there's a lot of need to recover as fast as possible.  Under these conditions, there are huge temptations to cheat.  It's also hard and expensive to test. The testing protocols are statistical, and even the first level test for the A samples cost $300 each, so the testing is hardly continuous. At low levels of drug, the type that fly below the testing radar, you probably aren't doing much damage to your body (relative to what you are already doing by a career as a professional athlete).

So, temptation$ plus low likelihood of being caught plus little physical risk... that adds up to a high likelihood that there is a lot of cheating. There's evidence posted on this site http://www.cycling4all.com/index.php?content=d_news12.php that cycling and baseball have the highest rates of positive drug results.

Without any evidence whatever, I would guess that Landis was taking a complicated pattern of doping with testosterone (perhaps to improve recovery) and then adding epitestosterone as a masking agent to hide this (since the screener, $300 test, measures whether the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone is above 4:1).  In Landis's disappointment at finishing stage 16 so poorly, and perhaps because he had too much alcohol to drown his sorrows, he did not follow this regime to the letter.

The next day, he may have realized this might have been the case, which is why he drank so much water during the stage (a count of 70 water bottles either drunk or poured over his body was noted).  This may have been an attempt to flush. In addition, a rider from the T-Mobile team drafted him during his entire ride, up until the final climb. The T-Mobile rider wasn't helping Floyd because his teammate Kloden was one of Floyd's rivals. The T-Mobile rider was trying to hang on to Floyd in hopes of having morestrength at the end and winning the stage in the final sprint.  If so, Floyd would have had only a 1 in 70 chance of being tested (they test the winner, the leader, and two other random individuals) and would probably have gotten away with it.  But the T-Mobile rider couldn't hang on and Floyd was tested.

So, my guess is Floyd was moderately doping, but messed up and got caught.

Who advertises to those with empty Inboxes?

I just cleared out all the messages from an e-mail account I seldom use. It's mostly used to provide an e-mail address when I'd really just as soon not provide one, and mostly accumulates spam. After clearing it out, I re-checked the in-box to be sure it was empty. It was, but the empty spot contained 3 ads -- all for lonelyhearts services. Asian women look for men - Women from Philippines, Thailand, and other asian countries   Single in Chicago? - Meet quality Singles in Chicago Parties, Trips and Introductions. eHarmony® Online Dating - Looking for a Serious Relationship? Let eHarmony Help. Free Profile!

This makes sense, now that I think about it.

Watch what we do, not what we say

Today's fun pair of facts, from the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/09/us/09gas.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

"In the Pew Research survey of 1,182 Americans — 1,048 of them drivers — 55 percent said they were driving less because of the recent increases in gasoline prices. The poll, taken from June 20 to July 16, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Yet Americans’ overall gasoline appetite has barely budged. Total use this year is up about one-half percent to 1 percent compared with 2005, according to federal figures — a slower rate of growth than in the past, but hardly the mark of a nation with its foot fully on the brake."

You are not alone

Today's fun fact, from Dannon:

Did you know you have over 100 trillion bacteria cells living in your body right now?

In fact, you have about 10 times the number of bacteria in your intestinal tract as you do cells in your entire body!

(OK, that's two facts.)